Jude Feld’s Belmont (G1) Day Stakes Analysis
June 7th, 2013
BEL 6) $150,000 EASY GOER STAKES 1 1/16 MILES
There are lots of things to like about #8 WABBAJACK. His speed figures have improved in every start and he owns the best last-race Brisnet fig. His late pace numbers are also on the rise and his running lines are becoming speedier. The Jimmy Toner trainee will be a great price and he has a pedigree to handle any type of track. Jockey Rajiv Maragh only enhances his chances. #2 POWER BROKER ran a corker in the nightcap on Preakness day. The son of Pulpit, from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, also owns improving speed figures and it is important to note that the third-place finisher from his last start came back to win. Jockey Rosie Napravnik got acquainted with him last time out and that should help him here. #9 IRSAAL has some checkered form but he seems to have put it all together recently. The son of More Than Ready relishes an off track and his speed figures are certainly competitive in this field. #4 DOHERTY has always been highly regarded. He boasts the potent connections of trainer Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. If he runs one of his better races, he could certainly be in the frame.
BEL 7) $400,000 TRUE NORTH HANDICAP (G2) 6 FURLONGS
This race is a true handicapping puzzle, with track and distance switches, layoffs and recent form all to be considered. #6 SAGE VALLEY was visually impressive winning a listed stakes at Pimlico on Preakness day – his fourth straight score. He is a paragon of consistency speed figure-wise. His cozy outside post will allow jockey Rajiv Maragh to place him comfortably, so a good trip can be expected. #1A FAST BULLET hasn’t been seen under silks since an overwhelming allowance victory at Hollywood Park on December 6. The Bob Baffert trainee’s lone defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), but that still gives him three victories in four starts. The son of Speightstown has been training like his tail is on fire, so seeing him in the winners’ circle would not be a shocker. #5 CAIXA ELETRONICA might be eight-years-old, but he hasn’t lost any of his gameness. He enjoys New York racing, has a versatile running style and can handle any type of surface. Can’t leave the Todd Pletcher-trained stallion off your ticket.
BEL 8) $500,000 JUST A GAME (G1) 1 MILE (TURF)
With only three points separating top to bottom on my turf figures and the foreign invader earning a fairly gaudy 113 Racing Post figure, this race will be determined by trip and surface handling more than ability. It is like a roulette wheel and as wide open a race as I have ever seen. The three fillies that might appreciate a little give in the ground are #2 STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, #5 LAUGH OUT LOUD and #7 BETTER LUCKY. Looks like an “ALL†in your serial race wagers.
BEL 9) $400,000 WOODY STEPHENS (G2) 7 FURLONGS
Wow! This race would make the late, great, Hall of Fame trainer Woody Stephens proud. #6 ZEE BROS ran a super race in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico, taking his field wire-to-wire against a distinct bias towards come-from-behind types. If he repeats that effort, this field may be in trouble. #9 CLEARLY NOW ran too well to lose the Bay Shore (G3). The son of Horse Greeley should get a magnificent run just off the speed and his 1:11 breeze at Belmont on June 1 looks pretty good on his page. #1 DECLAN’S WARRIOR is super-talented. He rides the three-race winning streak into this event and could easily make it four in-a-row if the rail doesn’t hinder his chances. #11 LET EM SHINE ships in from California for red-hot trainer Adam Kitchingman. He has blazing early zip and need only handle “Big Sandy†to be a major player here. An off track could promote the chances of #3 CAPO BASTONE and # 7 FORTY TALES, the first two finishers of the Derby Trial (G3). Those efforts were promoted by a closing bias and were run on a track labeled fast, but clearly very wet.
BEL 10) $500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE MANHATTAN HANDICAP (G1) 1 ¼ MILES (TURF)
Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has said #1 POINT OF ENTRY will run rain or shine. The son of Dynaformer is a multiple Grade 1 winner who can handle any type of turf. He’s been away from the races since February, but he has won off similar layoffs in the past. He will be a short price and is a must-use, but there are some stiff competitors entered against him. #5 OPTIMIZER is very good and sometimes unlucky, but his best race puts him right there at the wire. Jockey Joel Rosario should have him in the right spot turning for home and he might just be the one to give “the big horse” a tussle. #8 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE ran huge in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park. He has excelled at longer distances, but should be very effective going a mile and a quarter. #4 REAL SOLUTION ran decently in his American debut and should improve off that effort. He can handle softer turf and should appreciate the added real estate. Jockey Julien Leparoux fits him like a glove and you’ll get a better price than most Chad Brown trainees that attract your wagers.
BEL 11) $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (G1) 1 ½ MILES
You either believe in the Kentucky Derby (G1) form or you don’t. If you do, #5 ORB, #9 REVOLUTIONARY and #14 GOLDEN SOUL are your horses. If you don’t, fresh faces #2 FREEDOM CHILD, #6 INCOGNITO, #8 MIDNIGHT TABOO and #13 UNLIMITED BUDGET are your picks.
Let’s say we don’t believe.
#2 FREEDOM CHILD really doesn’t have the pedigree for a mile and a half. He’s got tremendous speed and trains keenly, so the distance may really be a problem, especially with #7 OXBOW breathing down his neck from the bell.
#13 UNLIMITED BUDGET is a fantastic filly. Her owner, Mike Repole, wants to win the Belmont (G1) more than any other race, but it seems like wishful thinking, that a filly, out of a Valid Appeal mare, who is stretched at a mile and an eighth, is suited to 12 furlongs. Nobody loves the gals more than me, and Rags to Riches’ Belmont (G1) is among my favorite races of all time, but I can’t see her and Rosie Napravnik in the winners’ circle.
That leaves #6 INCOGNITO and #8 MIDNIGHT TABOO.
#8 MIDNIGHT TABOO has oodles of ability. He beat the talented Central Banker by four lengths in his debut at Saratoga, then broke his maiden at Aqueduct in his next start. Most recently, the son of Langfuhr finished second to the talented Irsaal in an allowance race on May 4. Is that enough seasoning to win the Belmont (G1)? Probably not.
#6 INCOGNITO has run six times. He is by A.P. Indy from the super mare Octave. He did not have the best of trips in the Peter Pan and got trounced by Freedom Child in the slop while finishing with gusto. At 20-1 on the morning line, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee offers some solid value and may be the best bet, if not the most likely winner.
